ComboCurve: Utilizing Schedules in Scenarios

ComboCurve: Utilizing Schedules in Scenarios

Utilizing Schedules in Scenarios

Overview

Utilizing schedules is a great way to dynamically assess timing changes in Scenarios and simply manage different first production date and capital spend assumptions. This article will cover how to apply a schedule within the Scenario Module. For more information on creating schedules, see ComboCurve: Scheduler Overview.

Assigning a Schedule in Scenarios

To assign a schedule in a Scenario, it must have already been created in the Scheduling Module. Once that is done, follow the standard mechanics for model assignment: Click on the three dots to the right of “Schedule” and then select “Choose Schedule”. A list of valid schedules will pop-up, choose the intended schedule and hit apply.



Utilizing Schedules in Dates Models

When setting up a dates model in scenarios, ComboCurve has a hierarchy for determining the source of First Production Date. When a Schedule is applied to a well, using the "Forecast/Schedule" option the First Production Date based on the schedule is referenced in that well’s specific date model. The "Forecast/Schedule" option will honor the Schedule first if one is applied, if not then will use the start of the Forecast date. It is advised that if the Schedule date is the intended then to set this as the 1st FPD Source. This hierarchy can be changed through the dropdown to select different sources.



Utilizing Schedules in CAPEX Models

To utilize the outputs from a Schedule in the CAPEX model, choose “From Schedule” from the dropdown under “Criteria Option.” This will utilize the schedule applied to each well. Then under “Criteria From Option” choose the desired reference point from the selected schedule. Finally, if an offset from that reference is desired, type in the number of days to offset in the “Criteria Value.” A positive number will shift forwards and a negative number will shift backwards in time (e.g. -60 would apply the CAPEX spend 60 days BEFORE the reference point in the schedule). In the image below, $3MM Drilling cost is being applied at the Drill End date and $4MM Completion cost is being applied at the Completion End date according to the schedule (both without zero offset days).



Building a Schedule Sensitivity Case Example

Utilizing Schedules within Scenarios can become very powerful when looking to evaluate different development plans at once. To accomplish this, all scenarios need to be built within the Scheduling Module. Once all Schedules are created, follow these steps to test sensitivities:

      1. Create a qualifier for each schedule to be tested
            Click on the three dots to the right of “Default” under “Schedule” and choose “Create Qualifier”. Then give your qualifier a descriptive name and create.


      2.Apply a schedule for each qualifier
            For each Qualifier, apply the appropriate Schedule by selecting the desired Qualifier, clicking the three dots next to Schedule, and choosing the corresponding Schedule.


      3. Set up Combos to run Scenarios
            Once the corresponding Schedule is applied to each Qualifier, it is time to run the scenario. After clicking the “Run Scenario” button, choose the Columns and Reports settings of choice. In             Combos, add the appropriate number of Combos (or sensitivities to be tested) by clicking on “+ New Combo”. Give each combo a descriptive name by double clicking in the cell and typing the             desired name. Finally, under the Schedule column, select the qualifier from the drop-down menu within the cell. In the example below, “Default” is for a one-rig schedule and “2 Rigs” is for a two-            rig schedule.

     

          After this, results can be reviewed and exported as usual. Additional information on Qualifiers and Combos can be found here: ComboCurve: Qualifiers, Combos, & Sensitivities


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