ComboCurve: Forecast User Manual

ComboCurve: Forecast User Manual

Forecast User Manual

Forecast Module

Creating a forecast in ComboCurve will follow the same basic steps as creating any object within a module on the platform. This process will begin by either being on the project landing page, or navigating to that module’s list view to create, access, or import objects in your current project or from another project. Upon hitting “Create Forecast” in this case, the platform will navigate you to our Filter page where you can query the wells of interest that you would like to start with.

To start, navigate to the Forecast list view by either:

1. Project landing page > SEE ALL > Create Forecast



2. Main menu > Forecast > Create Forecast


You can enter a forecast in two ways in ComboCurve similar to how we navigated to create a forecast in the previous section, either from the project landing page or our module list views from the Main menu.

1. From the Project landing page > Click Forecast


2. From the main menu > Forecast > Work


This section covers the general layout of the forecasting module with a focus on viewing and managing your production plots within the forecast grid page (Forecast tab).


1. Settings
In this tab, users can Add/Remove wells along with Copy/Delete their working forecast. Additionally, users can assign tags from this page for quick filtering on the forecast list view. Users will leverage the filter page to identify wells they wish to bring it or take away from a forecast set.


2. Forecast Wells


Filter/Saved Filters – Click the funnel to enter the filter page to query to a new sub-set of wells. Access your saved filters with the dropdown to the right.

Add Wells – Click here to add additional wells from your project into your forecast by leveraging the filter page.

Remove Wells – Click here to remove wells from your forecast set leveraging the filter page.

View – Click here to view a well card for the current well you are selected on in the Well Header table (left hand side table).

Operations – Click here to copy wells OR remove leading zeros for production data. Remove leading zeros will normalize the start of either the daily or monthly production table to the first non-zero digit observed between O/G/W.


Custom Columns – Click here to build Project custom header or Project custom streams to leverage in your well header table or forecast workflow for items not already defined in the default well header columns or production streams. For either function, click the corresponding item in the Custom Columns dropdown > Add Column > Define Type/Unit > Name the Column. For custom streams you also can define the color you wish to visualize that attribute as on the production plots during this step.


3. Streams
Within our stream's dropdown, users can define the streams they wish to visualize from the Monthly, Daily and Forecast tables. This includes rate, ratio and CUM streams for production plotting purposes.



4. Chart Options

Within chart options users can control the settings for chart axis, scale types (log/cartesian) and various other items such as multi y-axis and back casting for production plotting purposes. This is also where users can configure and save the headers they would like to visualize on their production plots.



5. Chart Configurations
Chart configurations allow users to save their chart settings in order to easily reference a saved configuration during the workflow. Throughout our configurations on the platform users can create and save their own settings, pull from other users and leverage admin-controlled configurations when needed.


The automated forecasting engine conducts a regression analysis on the production data of a specified well, generating a fit based on the configurations provided in the auto-forecast settings. Access to this feature is available by initiating a new forecast and selecting the "Run Forecast" button, prominently displayed at the top middle of the interface.



The configurations within the Forecast Settings are critical in determining the outcome of the analysis. A Parameter Set encapsulates a series of configurations applicable to one or several phases of well operations. For uniform application across all phases, a single parameter set suffices. Conversely, to apply distinct configurations to different phases, multiple parameter sets are required, as illustrated below:

  • Option 1: Uniform Settings Across All Phases
    1. By default, the same forecasting configurations are applied across all phases. To omit a specific phase from the forecast, one may deselect it by clicking the adjacent 'x'. For instance, to forecast only oil and gas while excluding water, simply deselect the water phase. This principle is applicable universally across all phases.


  • Option 2: Unique Settings for Individual Phases
    • To assign unique settings to each phase, the number of parameter sets should equal the number of distinct configurations required. For example, to forecast oil, gas, and water under different settings, three separate parameter sets should be created, each assigned to its respective phase as depicted.
 

Note: Additionally, Custom Streams facilitate the forecasting of phases beyond Oil, Gas, and Water. By navigating to "Forecast Options" and selecting "Stream Management", users can augment their forecast with additional streams.

Forecast Resolution

This segment defines the granularity of production data utilized in the forecast, with options including:

  1. Monthly Only
  2. Daily Only
  3. Monthly Preference: defaulting to daily if unavailable
  4. Daily Preference: defaulting to monthly if unavailable

Model Selection and Model Fields

  • Model Selection outlines the forecast model applied to the analysis.
    • Rate: Forecasts each phase independently.
    • Ratio: A phase's forecast depends on a base phase, necessitating at least one phase to be forecasted as a rate to model others as a ratio.
  • Model Name offers a selection of Decline Curve Analysis (DCA) models.
  • Model Fields include the necessary inputs depending upon your choice of forecasting model.  For example, if choosing Modified Arps as the forecast model, the necessary fields will be as follows:
    • b factor: b factor range for the Arps decline
    • Di-Eff-Sec (%): initial secant effective decline (%/year)
    • D Sw-Eff-Sec (%): effective terminal decline at which the Arps segment switches to exponential
    • Enforce Switch: enforces switch to exponential decline even if that occurs before the end of production data
    • Well Life: number of years from selected date
    • q final: terminal rate
    • Peak Preference: The point at which the curve hangs from, this can be:
      • Beginning Point
      • Last Peak
      • Max
      • End Flat Point
      • Automatic
      • Note: you can hover over the tooltip icon on each option to see a brief explanation of each one
    • Zero Forecast (Days from Today): If there is no production data from that number of days in the past to today, the forecast will be shut in
      • Example: Today's date is 4/9/24 and the value is 365, if there is no production data from 4/9/23, the forecast segment will be a shut in

Note: Not all models will require the same input fields. For example, if choosing exponential decline, there won't be a requirement range for b factor since it's already set to 0.

Filter Options

These settings allow for the exclusion of outliers and customization of the data set for regression analysis.

  • Data Density: filter to remove outliers, the higher the level, the more outliers will be excluded
  • Date: this represents the portion of production data you want the forecast to be based on. You can leave this to "All' to include all production data or you can select a specific time period such as "Last" 1-x months
  • Value: this excludes all production rates that go above or below this interval (measured in bbl/day for oil/water and mcf/day for gas)
  • Percentile: this excludes all production rates that go above or below this percentile
  • Moving Average: production is averaged for a selected number of days to generate a smoother fit

Weighting Data 

This functionality enables the adjustment of weighting applied to specific data segments, influencing the forecast's emphasis.

  • A weight value of 1 represents no difference
  • A weight value of 10 puts more weight on the selected range compared to the remaining data
  • A weight value of 0.1 puts more weight on the remaining data compared to the selected range

EUR Restrictions

These options align the forecast with specific Expected Ultimate Recovery (EUR) values:

  • Match Forecast: matches the forecast EUR to the same well on a different forecast within the same project
  • Fixed Value: matches the forecast EUR to a specific value

Low Data Forecast Settings 

  1. Require Minimum Amount of Data to Forecast: Sets a threshold for the volume of data necessary to initiate the forecast. Wells with less than this required amount will generate a warning and no forecast will be generated.
  • Enable Historically Informed Forecast: Utilizes historical data trends when insufficient recent data is available.

Overwrite Manual

Toggles the ability to override manually edited well forecasts upon executing an automated forecast. If the setting is left uncheck, running the auto forecast will not override the manual forecast. On the opposite, if left checked, the run will override every well in the forecast.

Now that we’ve finished defining what we want in our forecast form, users can save their current form as a ‘configuration.’ Users can click the Configurations button in the top right corner of the page just under the question mark. These configurations menus can be found all across the platform for the same purpose, including the forecast grid page for saving chart configurations.

This allows users to save their current view or select views from other users in the environment. In addition, users can select other’s saved form configurations which will allow them to run the same input parameters as other team members. This can be very useful when trying to maintain consistency between team members.  We have also added “Admin” configurations, these can be managed by your company admins for standardized viewing or input parameter during workflows.
  1. Users will also be able to search for other team members saved configurations by simply searching the users name or the name of the saved configuration (be sure to included “other users” under created by).


Troubleshooting Possible Errors

In instances where wells do not meet the forecasting algorithm's prerequisites, identifying and addressing warnings post-forecast is advisable. To filter down to wells with warnings, you can click on Forecast Filter >> Show Wells with Warning. 


After filtering, you can see all of the wells that did not run. You can click on the yellow triangle next to the forecast chart of each individual well to get a brief description of the warning to better understand the issue. 

In this example, for the oil forecast, we selected a Peak Preference of "Last Peak". For this specific production profile, the last oil peak is located a the last production datapoint. This would cause the forecast to not run because there is not enough data after the peak to generate a fit as the error message describes. To fix this issue, you can re-run the forecast for just this well with slightly different settings. To do so, you can click on the 3 dots right above the yellow triangle and select Single Well Forecast. This configuration will only apply to the specific well and will not alter any of the other wells' forecasts. For this example, we can change the peak rate from Last Peak to Max to provide enough data to generate a fit.


1. Select and edit auto-forecast parameters for the individual well
2. Charting and Visualization section.

Modular Forecasting - (Editing)

Modular Forecasting can be accessed in three different ways:

1. Through the icon displayed on the right-hand side of any forecast graph underneath the Modular Economics (money bag) symbol.



2. By selecting  the well under the "Well Name" column in the diagnostics table



3. Through the forecast assumption column in the Scenario module by selecting the three dots on the right-hand side of any well’s forecast assignment and choosing "Modular Forecast" from the dropdown menu.




Layout

There are 5 main sections to the Modular Forecasting Page:



1. Summary  information: Forecast name, well name, summary header values, EUR, decline parameters
2. Wells/Parameters window: manipulate streams, specify precise decline parameters, add segments, switch between wells
3. Run auto-forecasting or select a forecast configuration
4. Chart Visualizations
5. Additional selections and configurations

Wells/Parameter Window:


This section of the layout is allows precise adjustments to the forecasts and switching between well selections. Regardless of Wells vs Parameter selection, the user can make the following adjustments - 
  1. Streams: Select the stream to edit, which will also be reflected in the editing chart of the visualization section. Only the selected stream will be edited.
  2. Type: Select whether the forecast will be on a rate or ratio basis. For ratio, the user must select the base stream. For example, a user may wish to forecast gas based on Gas-Oil Ratio (GOR) instead of the actual gas rates. They would choose Gas as the stream, Ratio for the Type, and Oil as the Base Stream
  3. Resolution: Allow user to select the resolution that the forecast is based off. The selected resolution (daily vs monthly) will appear in the editing chart below upon selection

When a Parameter is selected, In order to add segments, please follow the following steps: 

  1. Step 1: From the “Add As” drop down, select where in the forecast the new segment will appear
    1. First Segment: The segment will be at the beginning of the forecast
    2. Next Segment: The segment will be added immediately after the currently selected segment
    3. Last Segment: Add a segment  to the end of the current forecast
  2. Step 2: Select Add Segment and choose a model type
  3. Step 3: Modify new segment by adjusting parameters and using tools to manage transition between segments. To use these tools, select a segment  from the Parameters window and choose a function - 
    1. Connect Previous: Connect current segment to previous by shifting entire segment
    2. Connect Next: Connect current segment to next segment by shifting segment

    4. Anchor Previous: Shift q-start (and decline) of current segment to match q-end of previous segment
    5. Anchor Next: Shift q-end (and decline) of current segment to match q-start of next segment
    6. Match slope: match starting decline of current segment to ending decline of previous segment

Users can customize what they want to see in the parameter input table, users can also sort the parameters in order of preference.


When Wells is selected, the user can navigate between wells, filter on the current forecast set, or toggle to only see wells in the editing bucket.



Chart Visualization and Additional Selections/Configurations:  


Adding up to 4 charts will allow users to visualize and distinguish different types of data while on the same screen. This also allows users to create a more custom experience for there workflows. All chart settings are on the individual charts they are affecting, similar to type curves.



There are three chart types available in the visualization section:
1. Editing Chart: Used to visualize the specific stream being edited. Interact with this chart when using the lasso select or box select options for refining auto-forecasts.
2. Preview Chart: Used to provide other visualizations to help refine and build confidence in a forecast. By using streams and chart settings, many popular plots are available such as rate vs. date, rate vs. relative time, rate vs. cum, and cum vs. date.
3. Comparison Chart: Use this chart type to compare forecast against the same well in a different forecast set. Once chosen, a "Select Forecast" button appears which opens a pop-up window where forecasts from the same project can be chosen for comparison.


Options for Manual Forecasting

There are two main ways to adjust forecasts manually in Modular Forecasting

Option 1: Type Desired Value into Specific Parameter Field

When a segment is selected, all of the inputs are shaded blue and the outputs are shaded grey. To adjust one of the inputs, double-click on the parameter and type in the desired value. Hit enter or click into another field to see the change.

Decline Curves are commonly used to calculate a future rate based on a variety of parameters, but those equations can be re-arranged depending on what is being solved for. By selecting the calculator icons next to the decline parameters, a user can specify which variable ComboCurve should solve for. By default, ComboCurve solves for q-End and this is represented by the greyed-out calculator icon. An example where this might not be desired is when working with multi-segments and trying to dictate start and end points by inputting specific dates and rates. To define an ending rate, another parameter must be allowed to be calculated instead. To make this example work, the user must first select the calculator next to decline (identifying it as the calculated variable) and then define the starting and ending conditions.


Option 2:

When a segment is selected, it may be easier to use keyboard shortcuts to make minor adjustments to parameters and observe the changes in the profile until a desired forecast is reached. A reference for these shortcuts can be found by clicking on the keyboard icon in the upper right. It is not required to open the shortcuts window to make changes.



Various Segment Types

  1. Arps: standard Arps decline defined by a starting rate, effective decline, and b-factor
  2. Arps Incline: Utilize the Arps equation to forecast an increase. Useful for ratio-based behavior such as a GOR increase at the beginning of well life in unconventional wells.
  3. Exp Decline: Decline when b-factor = 0. Typical terminal behavior in unconventional wells. Used to fit a straight line on semi-log plots.
  4. Exp Incline: Exponential increase of rate. Useful for ramp-up period at the beginning of well life
  5. Flat: Maintains constant value for the duration of the forecast. Useful for constrained production or ratio-based forecasts
  6. Linear: Linear decline. Used to fit a straight-line on cartesian coordinates.
  7. Modified Arps: standard Arps decline that transitions to exponential decline after a certain effective decline. Most common segment type in ComboCurve.
  8. Shut-in Period: Flat at zero production for a given duration


Quick Edits Using Auto Forecast Parameters

When performing a lasso select or box select, the auto forecast will honor the options on the manual forecasting. If the manual forecasting selections match the ‘active’ forecast form configurations, the configurations inputs will be used during the auto forecast. If the selections do not match, defaults for the given selections will be used to generate a fit. Rapid edit mode on the preview chart will always use the auto forecast form.

Users can also back calculate a curve using a hot key and see how it matches over more production history.

From the forecast grid page, users can turn on Compare Forecast to visualize up to 8 forecasts at the same time for a given well. The forecasts a user wishes to compare to MUST be in the same project.


From Forecast Options on the Forecast grid page, users can navigate to another project, find the forecast they wish to bring parameters over from and import on their unique identifier of choice to update the active forecast they are in. It is important to remember that this function does have a time stamp that is traceable in the forecast parameter download (Forecast Options > Export Forecast Parameters), however, it will always use Today’s Date as that time stamp, not when the forecast may have actually been updated prior to performing the replace action. If wanting to track this via the front-end parameter export for business processes, be sure to only replace parameters to the master project all at once upon all forecast updates being completed.


Diagnostics

Diagnostics transforms how you see your data and make forecasting decisions. With an all-new visualization experience in ComboCurve, you can build a dashboard that fits your workflow—so insights are always clear, fast, and actionable.

Important Note: If you change your forecast you must rerun Diagnostics to include your edits. 

Diagnostics Run Generation 

To generate a Diagnostics run of your selected forecast open the forecast, click the Diagnostics tab at the top, and select Run Diagnostics.

      

The Diagnostics Settings menu will appear, where you can choose the data set the Diagnostics will run on. 



The top two check boxes control how missing and zero production will be handled. If "Treat missing production as zero" is checked then any missing production values will be evaluated as zero, but if unchecked then dates with missing production will be excluded from the run. If "Remove zero production values" is checked then they will be excluded from the run. 

Diagnostic Sets are then used to group streams by data settings for the Diagnostics run. You can create up to 1 set per stream so up to 10 sets total by selecting the blue +Diagnostic Set. To assign a stream, drag it into the desired set. A stream must already exist in the forecast to appear here; refer to Stream Management to add new streams. Within each set you can define the forecast data used for the run in both Scalar Settings and Time Series Settings.

The Diagnostic settings can also be saved as a configuration. Once everything is set as desired, you will hit the Run button to Run Diagnostics. 


Page Layout

At the top of the page you have the following capability   
  1. Filter Button - filter wells to wells based on well headers or by saved filters
  2. Run Diagnostics Button - click here for the settings menu to reappear to rerun Diagnostics
  3. Edit - allows you to edit your editing bucket or filter to those wells
  4. Approval - allows you to mark the status of the forecast by stream
  5. Compare Forecast and Select Forecasts - allows you to choose a forecast to use to compare in the Tables and Widgets
    1. First click the Compare Forecast button then click Select Forecast to choose the forecast in the existing project

                  

Metrics Manager

Metrics Manager is the settings used to control the information that is included in Scalar Metrics Table and all the Widgets. See the ComboCurve: Diagnostics Metrics Manager document for a more detailed breakdown. 
      

Layout Configurations

You can save the page layout configuration by clicking the configuration icon. With the configuration drop down you can select which configuration will be displayed as well as manage your saved configuration. If a configuration is set to Default, stared icon, then that will be the layout when you bring up the Diagnostics tab.  Configurations can also be edited and then saved by selecting the pencil icon after editing to save your edits. Items that are not saved in configurations are - aggregation level, forecast selected, column width and column order. 

 


The Freeze button will freeze the display of the tables and widgets. It does not freeze what is in the table and widgets, just the placement of them on the layout. 

 

Scalar Metrics Table

Use the Metrics Manager to add headers and products to the Scalar Metrics Table. You can control the headers displaying by selecting them using the Columns function on the right of the chart. Here you can also create groups by dragging the headers to group by down the the Row Groups section. 



To export the Scalar Metrics Table right click anywhere in it and then select export. 


Widgets

On the left side you have the widgets that you can bring into the display by dragging and dropping. See the Diagnostic Dashboard article for a more detailed breakdown. 




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