Workover Economics
ComboCurve is a great
tool for frequently encountered Operations and Production workflows. You can
use it to calculate the incremental (delta/wedge) benefit for doing a WO vs.
doing nothing. If you have multiple WO options, you can compare those
simultaneously and easily determine best path forward via our dashboard. You
can consider the affects of SI on well economics and volumes. When you want to model the risks of a workover
or program, but don’t have many of the details, you can use our Risking models to
get a broader understanding of the potential outcome.
How to Calculate Incrementals
To see the
delta $ amount between base case and a second case, you can create an
incremental case in the scenarios. Example of when this is helpful is if you’re
considering whether to WO a well or just do nothing and keep it producing
as-is. Keep in mind that this option is most helpful if you only want to see
the delta $ amount between cases and not the absolute value. It will give you
the wedge between cases. Ex: Uplift or return to production case minus the base
case or do-nothing case. If you want to see the full cash flow dollar amounts
for both options, running a combo is likely a better option.
Creating Incremental
Example - Adding Incremental to single well case
- Start in the Scenarios module, with your base case or do-nothing case as the well of focus.
- Assign the economic assumption models to base case
- Once done making those assignments, hit the “Create Incremental” button in the toolbar above your table.
- A copy of your base case well with all the same assignments will appear in your table. This new row is your incremental case. You’ll notice a new column appears titled “Inc”. The incremental well has a “1” in that column and the original well has a dash.
- To differentiate the incremental well economic output from the base case, you’ll need to assign a few different economic assumptions to the new well. Ex: for do-nothing vs. workover, you will likely have different forecasts, capex, and maybe dates or expenses for each well.
Click Run Scenario to set up your report. Reports
tab Aggregation and Combos are not necessary in a single-well incremental case.
Run your reports and you'll see the results
Your metrics and BFIT results are the incremental value of the workover, aka the additional value brought by the decision to WO.
Adding Different WO Cost in CAPEX for Combos
A great way to compare multiple WO options at one time is with a combo.
- Go to the top of
your Capex column in the scenario table and click the three dots. Then Choose CAPEX.
- Once in the pop-out menu, make your first WO option capex model.
- Click in the category cell to choose the type – this will typically be either Workover or Artificial Lift. There is also an option for Abandonment if you’re considering that.
- Add in your Tangible & Intangible costs. Keep in mind these units are in thousands.
- Decide your criteria option for when you want the expense to hit.
- Then name your new model and hit Save As. Keep in mind that when choosing a name, you can use these models in other projects, so be concise but descriptive.
- Make as
many Capex models as you have options for your Workover.
- Now you’re ready to create your CAPEX qualifiers.
- If there
will be different post-WO well flow volumes for each WO option, you’ll also
need to make forecasts and a qualifier for the Forecast category.
- Once you
create and assign the models to all your qualifiers, you’re ready to set up
your WO combo.
Modeling Shut Ins
Modeling SI time is important for WO and completions programs. You can reflect SI periods in the economic scenarios Operations Model without needing to re-forecast.
For example, you can model a 1-week SI for WO, RTP at a 10% increased volume for 2 months, then return to the forecasted production rate.
Go to the top of your Operations column in the
scenario table and click the three dots. Then Choose Operations. Once in the pop-up menu, create your Operations Model by -
- Select your
phase to SI, choose Dates and add your planned WO SI dates to Start and End
- For an
increase in post-WO production, choose something >1.0 for your Scale Post-SI
(this example is 1.1)
- Decide your
criteria for when you want the higher flow to end, either Economic Limit of the
well or a specific date
- You can
also choose yes or no to have the Fixed Expenses and Capex continue to hit
during the SI period
- Then name
your new model and hit Save As.
For detailed
explanations of the options for SI in economics in the Operations tab, please
see ComboCurve: Operations.
Applying Risking to WO
You
can also apply a broader risking to your WO program if you don’t have
individual well details or need that granularity. For more detailed information
about Risking see ComboCurve: Risking.
Note: Units are in percent and can set greater than 100.
Volumetric Risking
This
is a great way to account for the chance of a well that comes back online higher
or lower than expected post-WO. There are a few approaches to this adjustment,
including the more direct volumetric or sales basis or via a more indirect well
count.
Well Count Risking
This
is great for situations where you would like to account for wells not producing
anymore regardless of if there is an active WO program or not (ex: frac hits,
wellbore integrity issues, large multi-well leases, etc.)
CAPEX Risking
This
is a good option if you have only a rough estimate of workover costs, but also want
to account for some variability. Ex: extra parts needed, unexpected wellbore
integrity issues, tubing needs replaced instead of repaired, etc.
Expense Risking
This is a good option if you want to model OPEX
cost changes. Ex: Lease Operating Expenses, Takeaway costs, or Water Disposal
increase. There are many Category options notable for WO modeling purposes such as “Total Fluid”, “Fixed”, and
“Water Disposal”.
Combo Visualization - Deciding which WO is best
Combos have a great visualization option in the “Reports
(Beta)” tab that is particularly helpful for seeing which WO option has the
best economic results.
After you
run your report, click on the “Reports(Beta)” tab and hit the green generate
button under the One-Line Summary.
Once PowerBI generates the reports dashboard, you'll be able to se customizable data analytics on your results. Click on the “Combo Comparison” and/or the “Combo
Comparison Well-by-Well” the tabs at the
bottom and you’ll be able to see each Workover option side-by-side in graph
form. The Volumetrics, Cash Flows, etc. are customizable via the
drop-downs/selection boxes and can help you decide which WO makes the most
sense for your program.