ComboCurve: ARIES - Importing and Exporting Forecasts via .txt in the Forecast Module

ComboCurve: ARIES - Importing and Exporting Forecasts via .txt in the Forecast Module

Importing and Exporting Forecasts to ComboCurve from ARIES

Importing Forecast to ComboCurve From ARIES

ComboCurve has a method to ingest forecasts (only, without doing a full db import) from ARIES.  This involves exporting your forecasts from ARIES using File…Export…Economic Case Data in ARIES Project Manager which generates a formatted text file with your forecast data in it.
That text file will then be imported into ComboCurve (‘CC’) using the Forecast Options…Import Forecast (see the video ComboCurve ARIES Forecast Import in the ComboCurve online help):



This is not the same as a complete ARIES database import into CC from Main CC Menu…Data Import. Because CC only has access to this text file in this workflow, not your entire ARIES database, all forecasts need to be complete with no @ calls or references.  All calls to @macros and files will need to be flattened (i.e., converted to numbers) prior to import.  If they cannot be flattened, then a full database import will need to be done and the forecasts can be merged after import.  This document discusses the Forecast Options… Import Forecast method only.

Limitations

  1. Many ARIES forecasts use @macro table references (e.g., @M.xxxx), SIDEFILES, LOOKUPs, LOAD, LOADXL or XL references, or FILE references in the Production Section (aka section 4).
    1. Because ComboCurve will not have access to your ARIES database, the forecast importer will not be able to resolve these external references. 
    2. However, some external references can be flattened in ARIES
  2. If your forecast is modified by lines in the Overlays section (aka Section 9), these will not be imported with this method.
  3. Remember: if these external references or Overlays cannot be flattened, the forecasts can still be imported and merged using the full ARIES database import workflow discussed in the following CC Online Help documents and videos:
    1. Preparing and Transferring ARIES Access Databases (.accdb or .mdb)
    2. ComboCurve: How to Upload from ARIES
    3. ComboCurve: ARIES to ComboCurve Import Overview

Flattening External References in ARIES

  1. If your forecast lines use @macro, SIDEFILE, or LOOKUP references, you can use the ARIES Economics Global Editor to Replace @Macros with Values.
  2. Refer to the ARIES Help file for instructions on exactly how to use this feature in your ARIES version.
  3. In ARIES Economics, choose Data...Economics Global Editor (or CTRL+G)
    1. Operation = Replace @Macro With Values
    2. Section = Production
    3. Scenario = [your scenario]
    4. Date Replacement Format = MM/YYYY
    5. If you have SIDEFILE or LOOKUP references in your forecast then:
      1. Include SideFile = YES
      2. Include Lookup Table = YES
    6. New Scenario Name:  Make up a name for the new Scenario that will be created by the global editor.  This scenario will include the qualifier entered below in the Production Section (Section 4)
    7. New qualifier Name:  Make up a name for the new Qualifier that will be created by the global editor.  When it unpacks and replaces (‘flattens’) the @macro and SIDEFILE/LOOKUP references they will be qualified with this new qualifier.
    8. Click OK to initiate the Replacement

Exporting Forecasts to Text File from ARIES

  1. In ARIES Project Manager, choose your Scenario from the dropdown menu on the Toolbar
  2. Go to File…Export…Economic Case Data
    1. Text File Name:  Browse to or paste the location you want to save your text file and type in a name for the file.
    2. Master Table Item:  In the vast majority of cases, you will choose PROPNUM here.  This is the identifier that will need to be matched in ComboCurve.  You could also use a CHOSENID, API Number or INPTID if those are present in your ARIES Database.  The Importer in ComboCurve will ask you which identifier you want to match to.
      1. If the project does not have a matching ID, submit a ticket and our Customer Success team, along with an ARIES Subject Matter Expert will show you how to manage an import to generate an aligning ID.
    3. Economic Sections:  Production
    4. Export Unqualified Lines:  If your forecast contains lines with no qualifier that you want to import, then check this box.  Otherwise leave it unchecked.
    5. Scenario: This cannot be selected but will reflect the scenario you chose in Step 1.
    6. Click Export
  3. Browse to the location you chose for your file and open the .txt file in any text editor such as NotePad or WordPad and just take a look at what came out.  Search the file for the @ symbol or the words SIDEFILE or LOOKUP.  If they are present then the import to ComboCurve may not work as you intend.
    1. START @macros will be replaced with 1/1900
    2. Other @macros will cause the import to ignore those lines of forecast data
    3. SIDEFILE and LOOKUP references will be ignored.
    4. If you flattened your forecasts using the instructions above and you still have @macros, SIDEFILE or LOOKUP references then it may be necessary to do a full import of your ARIES DB if those forecasts are necessary to bring into CC.
    5. NGL, MUL, CUR, ENDDATE and similar are all ignored for .txt forecast imports as well.

Decisions Before Importing

When importing forecasts into ComboCurve, the following rules apply:
  1. Any existing forecasts will be overwritten on a well by well and phase by phase basis.
    1. If an OIL forecast exists for a given well in ARIES, it will overwrite an existing Oil forecast in CC for the matching well
    2. If an OIL forecast exists in ARIES, it will create an Oil forecast in CC where none exists for a given well
  2. Forecasts are only overwritten on import but never deleted
    1. If you have a Gas forecast in CC for a given well but no GAS forecast exists in ARIES for that well, the existing Gas forecast in CC will be left alone – not deleted
  3. ARIES Forecasts are only imported for those wells that are members of the CC Forecast name you’ve chosen.
  4. If you wish to start from a clean slate in CC and import -only- and exactly what is coming from ARIES, the best practice is to Import into a clean Forecast container with the wells intended to receive the forecast.  You can get a clean forecast by either creating a new blank Forecast or by copying an existing forecast and then choosing Forecast Options…Clear Well Forecasts:
    1. To Copy and Clear an Existing Forecast, From the ComboCurve Project Landing Page:
    2. Under Forecasts, click See All
    3. Click the three vertical dots next to the Forecast and Choose "Copy"

    1. Type a new forecast name and then click Work

    1. Forecast Options…Clear Well Forecasts


    1. Choose which phases to clear forecasts from and click Run

    1. You are now ready to import your forecasts from ARIES into a clean Forecast in CC

 

Importing Forecasts into ComboCurve



  1. In CC, select the Forecast you want to import into and choose Forecast Options…Import Forecast
    1. Source:  ARIES
    2. Drag and drop your .txt file that was exported from ARIES and drop it into the Forecast Parameters Upload box
    3. Forecast Resolution: Use the data resolution you used when forecasting in ARIES.  If unknown or if the resolution is mixed, pick Monthly.
    4. Well Identifier: Chosen ID or ARIES ID depending on which of these is most likely to match the PROPNUMs in your exported .txt file.
    5. Click Import and watch the progress bar. If there are any major errors, the error log can be downloaded and analyzed to find the offending forecast parameters, etc.
Note: CC forecast sets are often relegated to tranches of 10k wells.  Even when combined, importing more than 10k forecast sets should not be attempted in any one import.  If more than 10k wells are to be imported via the ".txt" method, try breaking up the import set into multiple tranches with a notepad application.

Exporting Forecast from ComboCurve to ARIES

There are three Export features in ComboCurve:

  1. [Option] Force Forecast/History Match
    1. This new option back-extrapolates Qi to the beginning of the month so the forecast doesn't shift when exported to ARIES (see details below).
    2. This new feature is found in Export Forecast to ARIES (CSV and TXT), and
    3. Scenario... Exports... Export Scenario to ARIES
  2. [Option] Truncate Forecast Start to Latest Production Date
    1. For a given single well:
      1. If 1) multiple phases are forecasted and 2) each has a different date of last production, then
        1. ComboCurve sets the ARIES START date to first day of the month following the latest date of last production found among the phases
    2. If a specific Start Date is entered along with this option, the date is honored preferentially over the last production date for all wells.
    3. If there is no discernible Latest Production Date (e.g., Undeveloped PRMS classes), Exporter uses the forecast start as the START date in ARIES
  3. Forecasts with start dates prior to 1/1/2000 are automatically rolled forward to have START dates of 1/2000. 
    1. Avoids "Start Earlier than BASE Date" errors in ARIES as long as the BASE date is set to 1/2000 or earlier in Economics... Setup... Current Input Settings in ARIES
    2. Does not alter the remaining forecast


Details and Example:

      [Option] Force Forecast/History Match:
  1. Because monthly production in ComboCurve is typically drawn as a mid-month data point and matched as such, and
    1. Because classical ARIES forecasts always start at the beginning of the month and
    2. Because historical monthly production data can be displayed in ARIES as either mid-month or end-of-month points, the problem arises where...
  2. Upon export from ComboCurve to ARIES the forecast is shifted in the X (date) direction to START at the beginning of the month and often the production data point is displayed at the end of the month in ARIES. (Note:  we recommend displaying production mid-month in ARIES Multigraph...Setup...Preferences)
    1. In some cases, this can create an unsightly, but heretofore largely unavoidable, gap between the historical data and the forecast in ARIES  
  1. The Force Forecast/History Match allows the exporter to "back-forecast" the curve to find what the curve's rate would be at the beginning of the month and exports that as the start rate in ARIES
    1. This eliminates the gap between historical data and the forecast by compromising and allowing initial production rate (Qbeg in ARIES Multigraph) to change
    2. This feature is best used, and is only recommended, when the fit of the curve vs historical data is more important than having the precise initial production rate (Qbeg in Multigraph) honored:
      1. Such as when the ARIES Effective Date is later than the START date of the forecast.
    3. If the ARIES Effective Date is equal to or earlier than the START date (e.g., a lookback), consider not using this feature.  Particularly in the case of steeply-declining, high b-factor Arps (hyperbolic) forecasts, even a small backwards extrapolation from the Qi/Qbeg to the beginning of a month can result in significantly higher start rates which may be inappropriate to the analysis being performed.  Use your engineering judgement here.
  1. Fit in ComboCurve:


  1. Fit with ("Force Align") and without ("Regular"). 
    1. Qbeg is allowed to vary between the two curves.
    2. Note:  with data points displayed at end-of-month the gap between the "Regular" forecast and the historical data would be even greater.