ComboCurve: Auto Proximity
What is Auto Proximity?
Auto Proximity allows you to run proximity forecasting for multiple wells at once. As a side note, proximity forecasting consists of generating a localized type curve in which the analog wells are selected based on location and well header criteria.
The main application of proximity forecasting resides with limited production data wells. With limited production data, forecasting future volumes becomes very challenging. Auto proximity attempts to solve this issue by generating localized type curves based on existing forecast of analog wells.
How to Generate an Auto Proximity Forecast
Once creating a new forecast, you can access the Auto Proximity menu by clicking on “Run Forecast”, selecting “Run Proximity Forecast”, and “Proximity Forecast”.
One of the main advantages of Auto Proximity is that you can run a regular forecast for wells with enough production data and a proximity forecast with wells of limited production. By default, the threshold is set to 12 months of production, however, you can change this to your preference in the “Apply to wells less than” box. After making the selection, ComboCurve will automatically calculate the number of wells above and below this threshold. You can deselect the “Run Auto Forecast” if you don’t want to run a regular forecast on the wells above the production threshold.
The following settings follow the same format of the legacy Proximity
on the editing page. However, an additional functionality of Auto Proximity is
the ability to pull analog wells forecasts from any other project in your
environment (assuming you have the necessary access credentials). By default,
ComboCurve will pull forecasts from existing project. To select a different project,
you can click on the “Current Project” box and delete the text and then type
the name of the project containing the forecast of interest. You can then select
the project from the dropdown list and then click on select forecast.
Another great feature is the ability to select more than one forecast to pull the analog wells as shown below. In the case that you have the same well in more than one forecast selected, ComboCurve will prioritize the forecast at the top (top to bottom hierarchy). If you want to modify the hierarchy, you can click and drag the small squares (highlighted below).
Once you select the forecasts, the proximity options follow the same format of the Proximity on the editing page. In a nutshell, you can select a search radius, a well count range, and any additional criteria from well headers to pull analog wells to create the localized type curves. The normalization and fit options follow really closely the type curve fit module in which you can select a normalization and fit type.
Note:
- For normalization, ComboCurve will automatically pull the Perf Lateral Length of the well being forecasted as the target PLL. If the well does not have the Perf Lateral Length header populated, the normalization will not get applied.
- The “Match Production Data” in the Fit menu allows the algorithm to match the localized type curve generated to existing well production. This allows to obtain the same EUR from the localized type curve while still matching the limited production data of the well.
Once you’re satisfied with the parameter selection, you can
go ahead and click on the run button at the bottom of the form. If you’re
running both the auto and proximity forecast, ComboCurve will run the auto
forecast first and then proximity. You can save your proximity settings similarly to regular forecast by clicking on the gear icon in the above form. To filter down to the wells that have been
forecasted using proximity, you can navigate to “Forecast Filter” and select “Proximity”.
Additional Details
Auto Proximity is currently being released as a technical
preview. More clarification is shown below by our forecast product team.
· Why are we releasing it as a technical preview?
During testing of the feature, we
encountered failure rates that were deemed unacceptable for fully releasing the
feature. These failures occur randomly
and are a consequence of the architecture that the feature is being run on.
· What is a Technical Preview?
A technical preview is a way for us to validate the feature and get it into the hands of a select set of users before the feature is fully released. This allows us to get valuable feedback from clients, with the hefty caveat that there are known performance limitations.
· What are the known limitations?
The limitations are around our infrastructure's ability to scale up quickly to suit demand. When queuing up large numbers of proximity instances, we are unable to create new instances at a sufficient rate to satisfy this demand.
This issue scales linearly with the number of wells that are binned as Proximity. Smaller batches of proximity wells are significantly less likely to encounter issues.
Auto Proximity currently has a cap of 25,000 candidate wells and can be run for 1000 wells at one time.
· What happens if it fails?
The user gets a notification that the job failed, similar to when a Copy or regular Forecast fails.
· If it fails, does it overwrite my existing parameters?
For wells that were successfully run, yes. They will receive the updated proximity forecasts and have a proximity document created for them. Wells that are in the "failed" instances will retain their prior parameters and settings.
· If it fails, do I just re-run it?
Yes! A possible workflow would be to autoforecast the whole batch, then run Auto Proximity. If the run fails, the user can then filter to wells with the "autoforecast" subtype and rerun those specifically (they will not have received the "proximity" subtype yet).
· When will it be fully fledged?
TBD. We have some significant infrastructure challenges to overcome before we can comfortably give an estimate.
· What are candidate wells vs neighbor wells?
Candidate wells constitute the list of wells from which proximity can select your background wells. They are selected via the union of all the user-selected forecasts. AutoProximity currently has a cap of 25,000 candidate wells.
Neighbor wells are the wells selected by the proximity
pipeline as the wells that meet the user-specified criteria and are
geographically close to the target well.
·
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