ComboCurve: Auto Proximity
What is Auto Proximity?
Auto Proximity allows you to run proximity forecasting for multiple wells at once. As a side note, proximity forecasting consists of generating a localized type curve in which the analog wells are selected based on location and well header criteria.
The main application of proximity forecasting resides with limited production data wells. With limited production data, forecasting future volumes becomes very challenging. Auto proximity attempts to solve this issue by generating localized type curves based on existing forecast of analog wells.
How to Generate an Auto Proximity Forecast
Once creating a new
forecast, you can access the Auto Proximity menu by clicking on “Run Forecast”,
selecting “Run Proximity Forecast”, and “Proximity Forecast”.
One of the main advantages of Auto Proximity is that you can run a regular forecast for wells with enough production data and a proximity forecast with wells of limited production. By default, the threshold is set to 12 months of production, however, you can change this to your preference in the “Apply to wells less than” box. After making the selection, ComboCurve will automatically calculate the number of wells above and below this threshold. You can deselect the “Run Auto Forecast” if you don’t want to run a regular forecast on the wells above the production threshold.
By default,
ComboCurve will pull forecasts from the existing project. To select a different project,
you can click on the “Current Project” box and delete the text and then type
the name of the project containing the forecast of interest. You can then select
the project from the dropdown list and then click on select forecast.
Another great feature is the ability to select more than one
forecast to pull the analog wells as shown below. In the case that you have the
same well in more than one forecast selected, ComboCurve will prioritize the forecast
at the top (top to bottom hierarchy). If you want to modify the hierarchy, you
can click and drag the small squares (highlighted below).
Once you select the forecasts, the proximity options follow the same format as the Proximity in the Modular Forecast. In a nutshell, you can select a search radius, a well count range, and any additional criteria from well headers to pull analog wells to create the localized type curves. The normalization and fit options follow the type curve fit module, in which you can select a normalization and fit type.
Note:
- For normalization, ComboCurve will automatically pull the Perf Lateral Length of the well being forecasted as the target PLL. If the well does not have the Perf Lateral Length header populated, the normalization will not get applied.
- The “Match Production Data” in the Fit menu allows the algorithm to match the localized type curve generated to existing well production. Now, obtaining the same EUR from the localized type curve while still matching the limited production data of the well.
Once you’re satisfied with the parameter selection, you can
go ahead and click on the run button at the bottom of the form. If you’re
running both the auto and proximity forecast, ComboCurve will run the auto
forecast first and then the proximity. You can save your proximity settings similarly to a regular forecast by clicking on the gear icon in the above form. To filter down to the wells that have been
forecasted using proximity, you can navigate to “Forecast Filter” and select “Proximity”.
Limitations
- The maximum number of Candidate Wells to be used as selected to generate Neighbor/Representative Wells is 25k
- Neighbor/Representative Wells can be matched to a maximum of 200 wells per
- The maximum number of wells that can be forecasted using Auto Proximity is 25k
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